Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 76885.119197 81234.504401 85586.501949 90264.689648 95148.069359 100092.065950 105472.588007
2025-03-16 69228.937687 75837.641867 82640.076225 90155.326000 98215.336384 106590.093093 115939.697880
2025-03-23 64834.332771 73061.255754 81717.730464 91484.770825 102177.492314 113506.891869 126397.433660
2025-03-30 61194.262561 70621.620372 80725.765580 92327.229983 105245.048317 119151.877411 135219.971475
2025-04-06 57772.629603 68098.116994 79346.707850 92461.793789 107281.780259 123457.689284 142395.681103
2025-04-13 54739.245965 65777.592660 77981.880256 92409.195152 108928.428127 127181.260014 148801.498098
2025-04-20 52912.796835 64688.736664 77881.350630 93669.185739 111957.509098 132383.130790 156824.236523
2025-04-27 51287.587911 63717.912590 77815.313141 94877.911972 114855.119023 137387.042909 164599.196363
2025-05-04 49492.505254 62443.300454 77304.088066 95485.309687 116988.499228 141466.827111 171287.456209
2025-05-11 47548.760046 60895.425587 76385.076441 95533.071162 118400.064584 144661.453738 176919.238951
2025-05-18 45880.935365 59601.928889 75698.172675 95791.625886 120007.079161 148047.523721 182756.417087
2025-05-25 44297.356372 58341.783357 74989.048509 95966.256841 121467.422954 151229.352877 188338.568024
2025-06-01 43365.322144 57863.695911 75218.173186 97280.487258 124320.122160 156109.695474 196016.832651
2025-06-08 41722.554590 56439.180364 74236.543946 97071.200837 125295.196210 158729.795487 200996.645008
2025-06-15 40968.780909 56102.017424 74571.367779 98462.758216 128214.683005 163695.656829 208825.960364
2025-06-22 40027.818401 55486.222245 74524.768523 99352.677658 130499.961809 167889.959400 215735.928113
2025-06-29 38796.746667 54451.259998 73910.074307 99494.591114 131830.601222 170904.554269 221207.901036
2025-07-06 37545.643115 53346.708415 73167.493742 99438.583414 132885.199381 173562.544820 226238.691123
2025-07-13 36980.237701 53120.180507 73530.299784 100775.590370 135685.757320 178383.962092 233962.230821
2025-07-20 36423.371486 52882.111650 73860.180400 102058.040578 138414.271099 183125.125125 241612.704920
2025-07-27 35625.865698 52293.878059 73710.822354 102702.419062 140319.211847 186837.635630 247995.932338
2025-08-03 34621.276089 51394.030051 73124.474358 102753.086269 141444.666642 189562.335227 253145.433146
2025-08-10 33753.702005 50654.043954 72725.146948 103027.368157 142843.513130 192626.887731 258730.588532